AI Overview and Commercial Queries: Why Your SEO Tracking is Misleading You

Your SEO tracking tool tells you that 15% of searches in your industry trigger an AI Overview. You breathe a sigh of relief. Then you type "best CRM software for SMEs" into Google. An AI-generated box takes up the entire screen above the fold. Your site isn't in it.

The problem isn't your tool. It's how we aggregate AI Overview data without distinguishing between informational and commercial queries. A recent Authoritas study on 100,000 keywords reveals that Google AI Overview behavior differs dramatically based on search intent. And it's precisely the queries that generate revenue that receive the most unpredictable treatment.

This article shows you how to segment your tracking data, interpret the gaps observed between commercial and informational queries, and adjust your strategy for 2025.

What the data reveals: the gap between commercial and informational queries

Market analyses often treat AI Overview as a homogeneous phenomenon. Global figures mask a more complex reality. According to data compiled by several tracking tools in 2024, AI Overview appearance rates vary from 8% to 47% depending on query category.

Informational queries: AI's preferred playground

Questions like "what is," "how does it work," "definition of" trigger AI Overview in 40 to 60% of cases depending on the sector. Google has abundant encyclopedic content to synthesize an answer. Legal risk is low. The user seeks to understand, not to buy.

For these queries, your educational content can be cited in the AI box. Visibility exists, even if the click sometimes disappears.

Commercial queries: erratic behavior and high stakes

Transactional and commercial queries present a different pattern. "Accounting software pricing," "cloud ERP comparison," "food packaging supplier Belgium": these searches trigger AI Overview less systematically, with observed rates between 12% and 28% according to studies.

But beware: when AI Overview appears on a commercial query, the impact on click-through rates is more brutal. The AI box tends to display comparisons, price ranges, sometimes direct recommendations. The user gets an actionable answer without visiting your site.

The numbers that change everything

• Informational queries: AI Overview present in 45% of cases on average, but CTR preserved at 60-70% of pre-AI levels for cited organic results
• Commercial queries: AI Overview present in 18% of cases on average, but CTR reduced by 35 to 50% when the box appears
• Local commercial queries: AI Overview often integrates Google Maps and business listings, creating a closed journey within Google's ecosystem

These averages hide significant sector variations. Industrial B2B sees less AI Overview than SaaS. Professional services less than e-commerce.

Why your current tracking is misleading you

Most enterprise SEO tracking tools aggregate data without segmentation by intent. You get a global percentage of AI Overview on your tracked keywords. This figure tells you nothing relevant for your commercial strategy.

Error #1: averaging the entire keyword portfolio

A typical B2B SME portfolio contains 70% informational queries and 30% commercial queries. If AI Overview massively affects the informational part and relatively spares the commercial part, your global average will be high. You'll panic about the wrong issue.

Conversely, if your key commercial queries are affected but drowned in the mass, you'll underestimate the impact on your pipeline.

Error #2: ignoring commercial query volatility

Google constantly tests AI Overview display. On commercial queries, this volatility is particularly marked. A query can display the AI box on Monday, not on Wednesday, then again on Friday with a different format.

AISOS audits reveal that certain key commercial queries change AI Overview status three to four times per month. A weekly snapshot doesn't capture this reality.

Error #3: not cross-referencing with conversion data

Your SEO tracking lives in a silo. Your conversion data in another. When AI Overview appears on "inventory management solution SME" and your demo requests drop by 20%, you might attribute the cause to seasonality or competition.

Without explicit correlation between AI Overview presence by query and business metrics, you're navigating blind.

How to segment and track correctly in 2025

Adapting your tracking requires a rethinking of your approach, not necessarily your tools. Here's the methodology we recommend.

Step 1: classify your portfolio by intent

Review your tracked keywords and assign an intent to each:

• Pure informational: the user seeks to understand, not to buy
• Commercial investigation: comparisons, reviews, "best," "top," "vs"
• Commercial transactional: "price," "quote," "buy," "supplier"
• Navigational: search for your brand or a specific competitor

This classification can be partially automated via keyword rules, then manually refined for ambiguous queries.

Step 2: create segmented dashboards

Your reporting should display separately:

• AI Overview presence rate by intent category
• Evolution of this rate over 30, 60, 90 days by category
• Average position in classic organic results by category
• Citation rate in AI Overview when it appears, by category

A 50% AI Overview rate on your informational queries doesn't call for the same response as a 50% rate on your transactional queries.

Step 3: monitor volatility, not just presence

For your 20 most strategic commercial queries, set up daily or bi-daily tracking. Calculate a stability index: how many times does the AI Overview status change over 30 days?

A stable query without AI Overview is a classic SEO opportunity. A volatile query requires a hybrid strategy. A stable query with permanent AI Overview demands priority GEO optimization.

Step 4: correlate with business metrics

Integrate into your CRM or analytics tool a "source query" dimension that allows you to link your conversions to original queries. When a key commercial query switches to permanent AI Overview, observe the evolution of associated leads over 4 to 6 weeks.

This correlation will give you concrete business value of AI Overview impact, beyond visibility metrics.

Adapting your content strategy to 2025 realities

Refined tracking is only useful if it guides action. Here's how to adjust your content production based on findings.

For commercial queries still spared by AI Overview

These queries represent your traditional SEO opportunity window. Invest in optimized transactional content: detailed product pages, sector landing pages, comparison content where you position yourself favorably.

The goal is to capture maximum value while the user journey still goes through classic organic results.

For commercial queries affected by AI Overview

Two complementary axes:

Axis 1: optimization for citation. Structure your content to maximize chances of being cited in the AI box. Clear declarative sentences, quantified data, direct answers to common commercial questions. List and table formats increase extraction probability.

Axis 2: differentiation through depth. AI Overview provides a synthesis. Your content must offer what the synthesis cannot: detailed case studies, simulators, interactive content, specialized sector expertise. Users who want to go further must have a reason to click.

For informational queries massively covered by AI Overview

Reconsider the objective of this content. If it no longer generates traffic, can it at least generate awareness through citation? Does it contribute to your topical authority for other queries?

At AISOS, we observe that companies maintaining high-quality informational content retain an advantage on related commercial queries, even when direct traffic on educational pages decreases.

The emergence of hybrid queries

Some queries combine informational and commercial intent: "how to choose payroll software for SMEs," "logistics provider selection criteria." These hybrid queries often offer the best effort/result ratio.

AI Overview partially answers them, but users frequently need to go deeper. Your content can capture initial attention through citation, then convert through depth.

Signals to monitor to anticipate developments

AI Overview behavior on commercial queries isn't fixed. Google constantly adjusts based on user feedback, legal considerations, and the commercial objectives of its own advertising platform.

Signal 1: evolution of the advertising/AI Overview mix

Google derives most of its revenue from ads on commercial queries. AI Overview expansion on this segment poses an economic dilemma. Monitor how Google integrates or separates ads and AI boxes. A pullback of AI Overview on the most monetizable queries is possible.

Signal 2: geographical variations

AI Overview deployment differs by market. France and Belgium don't exactly follow the American timeline. Compare your local observations to US data to anticipate 6-12 month developments.

Signal 3: legal and regulatory recourse

The Digital Markets Act in Europe imposes constraints that Google must integrate. Media and publisher complaints against content extraction without clicks could influence AI Overview scope, particularly on commercial content where economic stakes are explicit.

Signal 4: direct competitor behavior

When a competitor regularly appears in AI Overview on your key commercial queries, analyze their content. What formats do they use? What structure? What entities do they explicitly name? Reverse engineering remains an effective method.

Building a sustainable advantage in the face of uncertainty

The temptation is great to react tactically to every AI Overview change. This approach exhausts teams and produces erratic results. A robust strategy relies on fundamentals that transcend algorithmic variations.

Fundamental 1: proprietary data

Content based on your exclusive data, customer surveys, sector benchmarks, quantified experience feedback, is harder for AI to synthesize without citing you. It creates a structural advantage.

Fundamental 2: embodied expertise

Content signed by identified experts, with verifiable biography and credibility, meets the E-E-A-T criteria that Google uses to select its sources. On commercial queries where financial stakes are high, this credibility carries weight.

Fundamental 3: channel diversification

Excessive dependence on organic Google becomes risky. Companies that perform in GEO simultaneously work on their presence on Perplexity, ChatGPT, Gemini. They develop direct audiences through newsletters, communities, events.

Fundamental 4: tracking agility

Your ability to detect changes before your competitors creates a temporal advantage. Investing in segmented and reactive tracking isn't a cost, it's strategic insurance.

Summary: what you need to remember

Aggregated data on AI Overview masks divergent realities depending on search intent. Commercial queries, those that generate your revenue, undergo specific treatment: less systematic presence, but more severe impact when the AI box appears.

Your tracking must reflect this distinction. Segment by intent, monitor volatility, correlate with your business metrics. Adapt your content strategy: capture classic SEO value where it still exists, optimize for citation where AI Overview dominates, differentiate yourself through depth everywhere.

Companies that master this fine reading of data build a sustainable competitive advantage. Those that continue to look at global averages make decisions based on statistical illusions.

Want to audit your visibility on commercial queries against AI Overview and AI response engines? Contact AISOS for a segmented analysis of your portfolio and actionable recommendations.